Well, I’ve been planning this project for about ten years.
I was thinking of making a fish pond when I came to the Philippines and I had seen news stories on Milk Fish production which here they call Bangus. And I while never ate it before it looked easy and would be a good way to grow food for local people I thought. But God knew what I was thinking about and then I was watching the news about farming a totally different kind of fish, he asked me, “Why don’t you grow THAT fish!” meaning the one I was just now seeing for the first time. I won’t tell you what fish it is, I mean, I barely know you!
But I began researching and found, yes it was expensive and in demand but hard to farm raise. I began to try to calculate how many fish I might grow, how large a tank should be, how much land I would need …
And then he spoke.
“How many fish tanks can you build on a hectare of land if a fish tank is 20 meters by 2 meters,” he asked me.
I had to look up what a hectare was to make sure I was doing it right! Then got out SketchUp to draw a box that was this size, not at all what I was planning. I spaced them apart and added a large barn area for equipment and office and things I didn’t know I needed yet, but I knew I would some space for farm buildings and parking and etc. And when I had a good first draft I finally told God, “I think about 60.”
“Good. Make two hectares of that.”
Wow, 60 was already blowing my mind. I realized I didn’t need TWO large barn areas and so I was able with that first layout, on flat, square land to fit about 140 tanks. I began to calculate density and volume and try to figure out how many fish would fit in one tank and he just told me, “Put 5,000.” That saved me a lot of time and effort. Now I know it is much less dense that other farms, so it’s a healthy density. But wait a second!!! If I have a farm on TWO HECTARES with 140 or more fish tanks and 5,000 fish in each tank … the yearly income would be … gakk!! I’ll let you do the math. But at full production which God said we would not reach for about a year it was over $75 million. What on EARTH did I need so much money for? God would later tell me!
Anyway back to the research and I then needed to find out how long it would take them to grow to market size. People are very cautious about their private research on this valuable fish so info is hard to find. I found one report by a Japanese team that was very old, used cold water conditions, and said it would take about two years to grow a similar species to half a kilogram, the smallest size you can sell in bulk in the market. I was crushed! It would take maybe three years to grow a fish to adult 1 kg size at that rate. It didn’t really jell with someone else’s report and before I got lost in research God told me it was wrong, it would only take about 14 months to grow one of these fish to 1 kg size. I used that figure for my models and sure enough a few months later I found ample research from Indonesia and the Philippines that confirmed yes, this fish in warm water if fed pellet feed will grow to 0.5 kg in 6-8 months and to 1kg in about 14 months.
The planning went on like this for a long time. I did my homework but when I had a problem I could not solve, a choice that I did not know how to weigh, or other personal details that I needed to decide on my own God would just tell me what to do! I wasn’t sitting around either, I was working as diligently as I could! I take his direction very seriously!
After maybe two or three years I had a well developed plan. I had redone the whole thing several times and checked my answers over and over and yes, it was all matching up. BY this time I had also met with the local government bureau in charge of fish farming and God told me if I bought my own feed mill that the lady in charge of the fish farm department who was retiring would know what to do with it to make us our own custom feed! Probably at a nice savings as well!!
Then at one point he said I needed to make some corrections to the plan. He mentioned I made five mistakes. First, my models of the fish tanks were 2 meters by 20 meters, but I had made the inside volume that size, not the outside dimensions of the tank which were now thicker by 4 inches in every direction. So my models were incorrect … they were off by the width of the concrete walls in both dimensions. … Seriously? That’s the big error? … Yes … So if the biggest problem I had was that my tank models were off by 4 inches!!! OK, 8 inches, in both directions … covering a farm that was maybe 200 meters long, well, I guess that means I was in pretty good shape!!! He also said, and he had told me repeatedly before, to buy the Ford Ranger. I had not bought even a motorcycle yet but in my planning I knew he had mentioned the Ranger a few times but I waned to research the other vehicles in the class so I had a comparison. He said, insisting, “The Ford Ranger!!”OK! I guess God is blessing Ford!
The other three items were small and I even forgot what they were already. But what this did was give me a lot of confidence that my plan was sound and I was on the right course. He also said the first sales trip we would make with our Philippine Farm Raised *** Fish to the Hong Kong live fish wholesale market would earn us HK$19 million. This is right now worth about US$2.5 million. Just our first trip!
And so I won’t tell you all the other conversations and details of how I came to this plan. I also won’t tell you the whole plan, of course. But here are some financials and other details.
The Fish Farm will cost about US$1.2 to US$1.7 million to set up.
It takes us about six months to build the farm and prepare it so we can start breeding and I do expect hiccups because the main fish God asked me to raise is hard to breed in captivity. People do it, but it’s a little tricky right now. Once we have a stable production of fish eggs/larva/fry they will grow to market size of 0.5 kg in 6 to 8 months from hatching.
Like I mentioned, Jesus told me the first sales trip will earn HK$19 million (US$2.5 million), at our fish prices that means we will ship from 35 to 40 tons, from that we can pin down costs of feed, electricity, total farm tank volume needed, tank construction costs expected, staff needed and etc. All based on this sales target, but also taking into consideration our plans for expansion after the first sales trip, and whether we need to prepare anything beforehand in this early phase before we earn our first sales income. It’s a well-researched plan, several variables and options are charted to give us flexibility in case of some unforeseen issues.
So with an investment of US$1.2 to 1.7 million in 12-18 months we will be able to produce a monthly income of HK$19 million, (US$2.5 million MONTHLY) plus or minus, depending on our investment and production strategy. By strategy I mean what if we produce ONE batch for the first sales trip and subsequent monthly batches are kept small so we can save on cash for feed during phase one? Saving money seems smart, right? … But after looking at the entire forecast I realized the downside is …. we will have nothing to sell for months 7, 8 or 9 possibly longer. In this situation we save maybe $54,000 even up to $160,000 in feed costs … but we would then LOSE an income or potential revenue of an estimated 7.5 MILLION! Penny wise and pound foolish? Not me! But this is why I ran so many variable production models, to understand the scope of the project in depth and understand the consequences of managerial choices!
And this is already a great income, HOWEVER we’re not done yet! The HK$19m revenue of selling 35tons of 0.5kg juvenile fish will soon be augmented once we start to sell the 1.0kg adult fish. Depending on volume, but based on what God told me, we will sell HALF the live fish at the first harvest at month 6-8 and keep the other HALF of the batch to grow to twice that size for sale at 14-16 months of growth. How soon we start to breed the fish we will hold and grow out until 14 months of growth to reach 1 kg is the main operational variable that has the biggest impact on our forecasted start-up budget by the way. But what all this means is the forecasted income per month (or per batch if you look at it that way) by the time we start to sell 1kg fish at this second harvest will increase the revenue to 3x the initial forecasted amount of HK$19m (give or take). BY this time we will be selling 35 tons of 0.5kg juveniles and 70 tons of 1kg adults, so monthly revenue when we hit full sales production around month 14-16 (after hatching) will be around HK$57m!
And at first I was also only focused on financials based on one main species but God told me yes, focus on that one primarily but we can also grow other species. So now I am planning to have a mix of three to five similar species in production which increases costs a very little, but makes a more stable sales offering in case we affect an oversupply of one species or another from time to time.
God gave me many of those details which I could later confirm independently, and also asked us to name it Bethsaida … do you know what the name Bethsaida means? I’ll let you look it up!
So I think my planning is done. He said it’s enough to start but other questions will arise later we cannot foresee and we will have to face and solve those problems later as they come up. But yes, we have a good enough plan to start. I am not an expert in marine biology, laboratory sciences, construction, ocean shipping or fish ingesting. All I can do is my homework, pray, listen and obey. There must be other people with those skills I lack who are called to come alongside me and to do their parts as well. It could be you? I have not idea!
What God told me one time is the problem is … people don’t listen! No one is spending the time to sit quietly at Jesus’ feet and listen to his personal instructions. So there is a great shortage of project planning to achieve his purposes, especially those done in a way that will give him glory. He said he needed me to do his planning right now because no one else would do it. That’s why he gave me these plans … not because I’m better, or smarter, or darn it people like me! No, it’s just because I listen!
So I’m doing my part. But I could sure use some help! Are my cost and expense forecasts correct? What about the construction estimates? I designed my own fish water filter system but is it big and effective enough to clean 60 to 80,000 liters of water if I circulate it 3 or 4 times an hour? What species of seaweed should I use in the refugium? Can I use coconut shell charcoal for activated carbon? Are my water pumps too large? How much shade is best? How much ozone is needed in the micro-bubblers to cleanse the water inside the protein skimmer without making it toxic? Is 3 phase power better than 2 phase power? Should staff wear Light Blue polo shirts for uniforms, or Light Pink?
I can share the plan in more specifics with interested people. But I do have to warn you. I saw angels in fire flying in circles around the plans that God is giving me, protecting them. So I may ask you to sign a non-disclosure agreement, a non-competition agreement or well, maybe I don’t need to?
But I do stupid things sometimes and trust people far too easily and what happens if I share details of this plan to someone who tries to steal it from me like what happened to my other business in Hong Kong? Will God allow an unscrupulous person to derail his plans to fund his revival and bring salvation and the blessings of the Kingdom to millions of needy people in the Philippines, Indonesia, Africa, India and the USA? Do you want to find out? I don’t!
So please pray for this project, pray for my managerial leadership, pray for the investor/s, and pray I don’t make bad decisions and give sensitive details to the wrong people! I don’t want to find out what those fiery angels flying around the plans and projects that God has revealed to me are there for. Do you?